Rogue One Takes in $155M in its Opening Weekend
Walt Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story earned $155 million in its opening weekend. That is the second-biggest December debut ever, 37.4% behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247.9m) and 83% bigger than the $84.6m debut of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journeyback in 2012. That’s the third-biggest debut of the year, behind Captain America: Civil War ($179.1m) and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166.1m).
It’s the 12th biggest debut of all time, above Furious 7 ($147.1 million) and Spider-Man 3 ($151.3m) and The Hunger Games ($152.3m) but below The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($158m), The Dark Knight($158.4m) and The Dark Knight Rises ($160.8m). Okay, fine, it was 37% smaller than the Force Awakens debut, which apparently means that the #DumpStarWars campaign was a smashing success. That’s a joke… honest.
But it was a slightly leggier debut weekend, earning a 2.18x multiplier compared to the 2.08x multiplier of The Force Awakens. And it earned “just” 18.7% of its debut weekend via Thursday previews, compared to 22.5% for Episode VII. The Felicity Jones/Diego Luna/Donnie Yen prequel fell less on Saturday (-34%) than The Force Awakens (-42%) but (as of this writing) fell harder on Sunday (-19% versus -11%) due to the whole “kids still have school on Monday” effect.
Is that slightly leggier debut anything beyond a fluke within the margin of error? If it is, then we can predict that Rogue One (at best) will perform like The Force Awakens after opening weekend. The Force Awakens earned an insane $936 million domestic from its $247.9m debut weekend, a rock-solid multiplier of 3.77x. It wasn’t the biggest “big movie” multiplier for December, but considering the size of the debut it was (most) impressive.
If Rogue One follows suit, we’re looking at an absurd $585 million domestic total, making it amusingly the second movie ever (after The Dark Knight) to earn between $458m and $623m domestic. But if it ends up less leggy than the prior Star Wars film, what exactly are we looking at? Well, here’s a fun fact: If Rogue One makes it to $460m, then the 10th, 9th and 8th biggest movies of all time in North America will be Rogue One, Star Wars ($460.9m) and The Phantom Menace($474.5m).